Grain marketing commentary

David Reinbott
Agriculture Business Specialist
University of Missouri Extension
573-545-3516
reinbottd@missouri.edu

June 5, 2018

http://extension.missouri.edu/scott/marketing-resources.aspx

USDA Reports and Supply & Demand Tables

 

Corn

Prices are pressured by good growing conditions through most of the Corn Belt and excellent crop rating.  The corn production in South America is getting smaller due to weather problems.  Depending upon the size of our crop, it should give us a stronger basis for the fall and winter.  For right now, the focus will be weather.  The forecast for the next two weeks is much above temperatures and normal to slightly above precipitation.    If the rains come in less than expected, it should give a rebound in prices.  Ending stocks do not look burdensome at this time at 1.68 billion bushels.    However if weather stays favorable and we add 2 – 3 bushels per acre to the projected yield, ending stock could be closer to 2.0 billion bushels. 

 

Technically, December futures last Tuesday put in a bearish engulfing, which is a candlestick sell signal.  Prices have fallen hard since then.  Key price support is at the 200-day moving average at $3.98.  It is important for prices to hold this support level or prices could fall another 20 – 30 cents.  If prices do hold this level, the first price resistance at the 8 (EMA) exponential moving average or T-line at $4.11.  Have we seen the highs for the summer or year?  Maybe, it just depends what the weather is from this point forward. 

 

Soybeans

With no weather problems at this time, soybean prices will stay under pressure.  Ending stocks for this year are projected at 416 million bushels and will go higher if acres are increased.  While ending stocks are 100 million bushels less than last year, supplies and stocks are still adequate. 
 

Technically, November futures also put in a bearish engulfing signal last Tuesday and the first major support is at the 200-day moving average at $10.07.  Prices are in a trading range of $10.07 and at the quadruple highs at $10.60. 

 

Wheat

Wheat prices will continue to be hampered by large stocks in the U.S. and world.  Wheat ratings look good, which is not helping prices.    

 

Technically, July futures put in a dark cloud cover or a bearish candlestick signal last Tuesday.  The good news, prices are still in an up trending channel.  Price support is at the 50-day moving average at $5.00.  With harvest just a few days away, making some pre-harvest sales would not be a bad idea. 

 

 

Cotton

It is important for a cotton producer to remain in close contact with his cotton buyer to get the most current price quotes.

 

Technically, December futures is trading below the T-Line at $88.94, which would be sell signal.  Futures have followed the T-line up for several months.  However, prices have moved substantially above the T-Line the past two weeks, which is a set up for a price correction.  Again, if prices close below the T-Line today, sales should be made.
 

Rice

For cash rice quotes, contact your rice buyer to get the most current price quotes and cash price outlook.  

 

Technically, September futures have broken hard to the down side.  If prices cannot find support at $10.90, the next support areas are at $9.60 and $9.20.